PDF Ebook Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

PDF Ebook Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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Listening Length: 9 hours and 45 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Audible Studios

Audible.com Release Date: September 29, 2015

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Language: English, English

ASIN: B0131HGPQQ

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Super Forecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a rather timely book about polls, statistics, politics, news, media, and more. This book delves into how the pollsters and surveys make their predictions and how they disseminate their findings to the public.The 2016 presidential election is one in which the pollsters seem to have royally screwed up. It seems that no major survey or poll predicted the outcome that occurred. This book sheds some insight into how so many seemingly scientific polls could have been wrong all at the same time.This book is written in a way that anybody can understand, no Master's degree in statistics or math needed. It was well-written and explains that forecasters are fallible too.This book also provides guidance on how statisticians and forecasters can get better results. This sort of 10 step program (there are 11 steps) can be applied to other issues in life as well. This book is also extensively annotated, with references at the end for those looking for more technical details.I received a free copy of this book from the publisher.

There are two kind of pop-science books; one deep and thoughtful based on years of research, one quick and dirty written by a ghost-writer. This book is of the latter kind. Tetlock wrote Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? about a decade ago. That book was deep and thoughtful. I had expected his new book to be an update with ten more years of research and consulting. Sadly, I am greatly disappointed. The book could have been written totally without additional research input. It starts with a couple of chapters of the history of the standard controlled experiment. There is about 50 pages of real content in the 330 pages of the book.There is a lot of content directly lifted from the web (e.g. Fermi-forecasting, Auftragstaktik) - kind of Malcolm Gladwell style, some insight and some misinterpretation.The style is **extreme pop-science**. What do I mean with that? Far too many pages, plentiful descriptions of minute irrelevant details of individuals (so called human interest points - I guess that is what they teach in creative writing), never any figure or number (e.g. 67% is changed to two thirds), all difficult material removed or put in a footnote. And how come a book with two authors use the pronoun "I" all the time?The researcher has run a forecasting tournament for several years. He has loads of data, but he does not provide any analysis in the book. He refers to his research in footnotes, but no explanation or description at all. Instead we get statements like 80% of superforecasters are more intelligent than average. What is wrong with running a regression to find out what characteristics are important? Why spend five chapters going through the characteristics of superforecasters? In the end, apparently, two characteristics stand out. (1) Continual updating of forecasts, (2) Being intelligent. That fact is told after around 200 pages of tedious writing. Wtf? I can reluctantly accept dumbing down the book, but it is inexcusable that the footnotes does not include some further help to the reader that wants more depth.The author likes to give minute details of the superforcasters. Personally, I don't care that Brian likes Facebook updates of cats, that John is retired because he is sick and that he now likes to collect stuff or that Steve is and old colleague of the author that likes opera. Who reads and enjoy this written muzak? It goes on chapter after chapter. We "meet" 15-20 superforecasters.There is a lot about the superforecasters in the book, but the title of the book is "Superforecasting". This is a seriously misleading title. It makes you believe that you will learn tools to become a great forecaster. You get some, mostly general, points in an eight page appendix. With the researcher's experience, I would have expected a lot of practical advice.What is good about the book?(1) The key message that experts are lousy forecasters and do not want accountability is very important, but that was already in the author's earlier book.(2) Some useful anecdotes that you probably should pick up if you are teaching/presenting on the topic.(3) Odd bits of information. I liked the discussion of how the German military used what we consider modern management already 100 years ago. As mentioned earlier, there are 50 pages of really good material in the book.I bought the hard-cover edition. If you make notes with a normal pencil, be careful because it easily pierces the paper.The book is worth two stars. If you are en educator and want a few anecdotes, read the book. Others should give it a pass. Instead sign up to the author's forecasting tournament. You learn more by trial and error learning. I signed up two years ago and it is a useful experience. You can also check the video features on edge.org. Then spend time reading better books. A few rigorous pop-science books:* Another forecasting perspective is Steenbarger's Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes (Wiley Trading). It is about trading in the market, but it covers many of the topics from a different perspective. Worth reading his earlier books too.* And if you haven't read Thinking, Fast and Slow, that is a more important book (but also too fluffy for my linking).* You should also read Taleb's The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto), but don't buy his fluffy version of the same topic Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)

The book offers insights into one of the most important aspects of professional performance, being able to predict the outcome of future events - which is of course impossible in most cases. The book does, however, come with very valuable insights - and unless you are familiar with these already - could make you a better forecaster.The key points I found from this book is to force yourselves to explicitly state your forecast, preferably in numerical probability, so that you can easily judge and learn from them when the facts are given. Keep an open mind (ridiculously obvious?). Separate known statistical content from case specific guess work - ie what is general in a case and what needs specific analysis?Although the information provided might be very useful, and I do not regret the read - I think the text is far too verbose and much of the content either repetitive or not very interesting. I kept thinking about Nassim Nicholas Taleb's entertaining books on randomness when reading, until his name appeared in an endless chapter on the critics of the author's work. If you haven't read Taleb's books, read them first - and save this one to your retirement days.

I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It's a fun book for taking a dive into forecasting .I enjoyed reading about how forecasters related to weather, politics, stocks, etc. are often considered professionals even though they may actually be amateurs. I also liked learning about how even though these people are often very bad or unreliable at forecasting, it is in many ways a skill that can be learned. While it definitely leans more towards pop-science than going academically deep into the presented topic, I feel like I learned some new information from this book.I do wish there was less fluff and I often found myself wishing for deeper analysis of the years of research the authors kept referencing.If you enjoy books like Moneyball or Freakonomics then I would recommend this book to you.**I received this book from Blogging for Books for free.**

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Free Ebook , by Jeff Alt

Free Ebook , by Jeff Alt

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, by Jeff Alt

Free Ebook , by Jeff Alt

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File Size: 4748 KB

Print Length: 303 pages

Publisher: Beaufort Books; Expanded edition (April 20, 2015)

Publication Date: April 20, 2015

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B00R3KLYQO

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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#271,903 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

This is one of my favorite AT books, Jeff's attitude for life leaves you feeling refreshed.After reading this book I felt myself with a much lighter attitude about life, this author is contagious in a good way. This book is simple yet page turning, I could feel myself on this hike with Jeff and didn't want it to end! This is probably the best AT book I have read so far as I really enjoy those kinds of books. A light and easy read that I'm sure I'll reread as time goes on. Inspiring story as well for the fact he did this for his brother.

This is the 12th Appalachian Trial book that I have purchased and I just finished up with Chapter 12 (of 35). While I will have this book completed in a week or so and will surely re-review it then, I wanted to get my thoughts down. So far so good! This is exactly the type of book I am looking for when reading a thru-hikers book. Besides "Grandma Gatewood's Walk", this is the first thru-hiker's book that I don't want to put down. Here is what I like:1. Despite the fact that he is doing this for charity, the charity aspect is only part of his reason for hiking the trail, and he does not turn the book into a salespitch.2. The book is not endless complaints about life on the trail.. He hurt his ankle at the point I am at now, and if he is complaining about it, then he is doing a good job of hidign it.3. I know exactly where he is on the trail throughout the entire book so far.4. He developes relationships with other hikers and talks about them in the book.5. He sticks to the trail and his experiences on it. I haven't read a self-indulgent diatribe riddled soapbox like I have in so many other books.Great book so far and I can't wait to continue on!

I loved this book.Jeff Alt is an excellent writer, and he did an fantastic job of describing the trials and errors of thru-hiking the AT. I would have given the book five stars were it not for the fact he didn’t include any pictures in the book. For those of us who live vicariously through the journey of a thru- hiker, the photos are a vital part of the process. While I appreciate the great job he did of describing certain aspects of the trail-like the cairns in the White Mountains-I would love to have seen some photos included.

Loved this book! I have read a lot of AT Thru-Hiking stories and this is one of my new favorites. It's positive, real and inspiring! I often have the itch for a good long hike but can't always get away for more than a week/weekend, but having a good hiking book brings back all the memories of being in the woods and satisfies that itch for awhile... and sometimes makes the itch stronger! I am really thankful Jeff shared his story -- can't wait to check out some of the other stuff he's written too. READ THIS BOOK! It's awesome!

I have read, and thoroughly enjoyed, other accounts from though-hikers of the Appalachian Trail. Some, tho' interesting, felt more like a published journal -- so they kind of dragged along in some places. Jeff Alt did a fabulous job of putting his story together for us in a way that totally engaged and informed -- all the way through. An account like this can be boring for the reader, if too many of the day-to-day (repetitive) details are included. While keeping the continuity well intact, Jeff did a great job of offering a fascinating account of his thru-hiking experience. It was very well written, moved along at a good pace, and did not repeat information. Sometimes, he withheld specifics until just the right time to insert them with a particular event -- which greatly enhanced the story. Yet, I was never confused about the time line. Yes, great continuity!!I enjoyed his stories and accountings, and thought he did a super job of describing the fellow hikers he encountered -- some of them very colorful characters, as are found on the AT. Very well done! He never offered judgment about others who didn't complete the entire distance. He also gave credit to others where due.He gave well-deserved credit to his "team," who supported him in various ways in his endeavor. Congrats to Jeff for the great contribution he made to his family and a wonderful charity! I would like to know this guy!(And, oh, how I have dreamed of hiking the AT myself -- but that's another story.)

I Loved this book. I was initially drawn to this book after my best friend asked if I would do a through hike with her. I found this book inspirationally as well as informative about the AT trail. I would recommend this book to anyone who is researching a through hike.

I enjoyed this book, it was an easy read and Jeff Alt writes in a conversational tone. He has a soft spot in his heart for his disabled brother and the institution that cares for him. His original intention was to raise money for the Sunshine Home that takes care of his brother, but he has a talent for marketing and turned his hike into an annual motivational meeting and also established an annual hike in home town of Sunshine House. . So this original hike continues to benefit his brother's caregivers. If you enjoy this book, you might like to check out his other book Four Boots, which takes place on the John Muir Trail and promotes an entirely different cause.....mental health and suicide prevention.

Jeff's story shared here was an approachable adventure and a book-journey I am happy to have taken. He walks us through his travels with the perfect level of detail and I was always left feeling exhilarated. I couldn't help but share how Jeff was doing with my wife throughout the whole story. Thank you, Jeff, for inspiring us with your travels!

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Product details

File Size: 25229 KB

Print Length: 385 pages

Publisher: For Dummies; 1 edition (May 17, 2013)

Publication Date: May 17, 2013

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B00CWZ22XO

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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#311,984 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

I would give this five stars for it's educational provisions, but it's reference style disappointed me drastically. The first chapter or so was very elementary, whereas I was able to follow along very keenfully. I was enjoying the explanations of different kinds of electrical waveforms. However, as the chapters progressed, it drastically downgraded to a "you must have your degree already to understand this" kind of a style.I wanted to return it, because I don't "have my degree already" kind of a background. However, I figured, like sometimes I'll do, I'll read a really advanced book that I'm nowhere nearly prepared for, and although I won't grasp literally everything the boom has to offer, litter things here and there I can pick up. So, it's a great book IF you have a background in the Mathematics and/or Electrical Engineering/Telecommunications.

This book could be a nice refresher, but mainly it seems useful to someone who is taking a signals and systems class, who is a already up to speed, who wants a little better understanding of the material then their textbook or professor provides.I was hoping for a quick reference, that explains signals and systems operations step by step in a clear and concise manner. I wanted a book with some examples worked out and explained from beginning to end. Most of all, I wanted a book that included refreshers of the math required for each calculation. This book is none of those things. I've never read a "For Dummies" book before, but I took the name at face value. In truth, I found it helpful, but only because I was already familiar with the material. If I had been coming in without a long list of prerequisites, this book would be next to useless.

I have taken many courses related to signals and systems and I have worked in the field for almost 15 years. Dr. Wickert is a theory guy, who has made this subject more accessible to non-theory people. My mind is definitely more sharpened on his whetstone after reading. I did not really "get this" until almost a decade after I started my Undergrad in Electrical Engineering. Most of the experts in this field are in their 40/50s and so there is typically an age gap by how books are written. Not so here. If you can recall even a quarter of the information in this book, you'd impress in a job interview. Looking at the book from a practical perspective, it mentions several software tools I have used previously (Mathematica, Maple, Matlab, Octave) and includes newer open source software such as Maxima and Python (which Dr. Wickert uses in the book). That's where the rubber meets the road and this book is well rounded with frequent code snippets to play with. The price tag makes this a real bargain compared to my equivalent Undergrad textbooks, which were $100.

What I liked best was his treatment of discrete systems. It makes digital filter design simple. This book was a nostalgic review for me. People in EE programs should buy it.

The topics in this book beg for you to browse through them (for a quick refresh or first time learn), and the way it is organized supports that. The language is natural and clearly understood, which is refreshing for this type of content. There are also excellent supplemental tools and materials. This book is really a great reference that earns a spot on your shelf of necessities.

Not helpful for engineering students

I bought this to help me brush up on some concepts for a job I was looking into. It was helpful to bolster my understanding to make me feel more confident about my knowledge.

The book is exactly what I was looking for. It is precisely what I and my undergraduate students need. I received the book in perfect conditions and in good timing. Although I have no problem with it being in English, my Signals and Systems students would have preferred it in Spanish.

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